Tag: #Graphite

Executive Summary

• Anode Margin Compression: Finished artificial graphite prices remain flat due to intense market competition and product homogenization, while key feedstocks like Green Petroleum Coke (GPC) are trending upwards, severely squeezing producer margins.
• LFP & LiOH Price Softening: Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) prices for both motive and energy storage applications continued to decline (↓ ~1.7% WoW), widening its cost advantage. Similarly, Lithium Hydroxide (LiOH) prices fell further, narrowing the premium over lithium carbonate.
• NCM Stability Amidst Cost Pressures: Nickel Cobalt Manganese (NCM) cathode prices were largely stable, supported by rising precursor costs (nickel and cobalt sulfates), creating a clear price performance divergence from LFP.
• Electrolyte Additives in Focus: While the main salt, LiPF₆, held steady, the price of a critical additive, Fluoroethylene Carbonate (FEC), jumped by over 6% WoW, signaling that cost volatility is shifting to lower-volume, higher-impact components in electrolyte formulations.
• Cautious Downstream Procurement: Across multiple segments, downstream battery cell manufacturers continue to purchase on an as-needed (“rigid demand”) basis, avoiding significant inventory builds despite the approaching Q4 peak season. This cautious stance is capping price upside for finished materials.
• Upstream Cost Floors Forming: Key intermediates like Anhydrous Hydrofluoric Acid (AHF) are firming up, establishing a cost floor that will likely prevent further price declines in downstream fluorine-based products like LiPF₆ and LiF.
• China’s Export Dominance Continues: July trade data confirms China’s role as a major net exporter of LFP, NCM, and LMO cathodes, with the US and South Korea remaining key destinations, highlighting persistent global supply chain dependencies.

Scope & Methodological Note

This report analyzes market movements for the week ending September 11, 2025. All currency conversions from Chinese Yuan (CNY) to US Dollars (USD) are performed using the exchange rate:

USD=7.1039CNY​

The analysis focuses on week-over-week (WoW) directional changes and their implications for techno-economic analysis (TEA), procurement strategy, and manufacturing operations.

Market-at-a-Glance: Weekly Price Direction

Cathode & Lithium Markets: A Story of Divergence

In stark contrast to the anode sector, the cathode and lithium markets were characterized by clear price movements and a significant divergence in performance between different chemistries. While LFP and its required lithium salt (carbonate) continued to soften, NCM prices held firm, propped up by the rising costs of its metallic precursors.

LFP and LiOH Soften on Tepid Demand

The downward price trend for Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) continued this week. The price for dynamical-type LFP fell by 600 RMB · t⁻¹ (-1.7% WoW) to a new average of 34,800 RMB · t⁻¹ (USD 4,899 · t⁻¹). This sustained decline further widens LFP’s already substantial cost advantage over NCM chemistries, reinforcing its dominant position in standard-range electric vehicles and energy storage systems.

This weakness was mirrored in the lithium market. Battery-grade lithium carbonate (LCE) prices were volatile, rising early in the week before declining to settle at an average of 71,000 RMB · t⁻¹ (USD 9,995 · t⁻¹). More significantly, battery-grade lithium hydroxide (LiOH) prices continued to fall, with the granular form averaging 74,250 RMB · t⁻¹ (USD 10,452 · t⁻¹). The narrowing premium of LiOH over LCE is a critical development, as it reduces a key cost component for producers of high-nickel NCM cathodes, who rely exclusively on hydroxide. This provides a small measure of relief in an otherwise high-cost environment for NCM.

NCM Holds Firm, Propped Up by Precursor Costs

Despite the weakness in lithium prices, NCM cathode prices remained largely stable. High-nickel 8-series NCM held steady at 147,400 RMB · t⁻¹ (USD 20,749 · t⁻¹), while mid-nickel 5-series NCM saw a negligible increase. This price resilience is not due to strong demand—which remains tepid—but is instead a direct consequence of rising costs further up the value chain.

The precursor market for NCM “hiked up further” this week. This was driven by a continued rally in the cobalt sulfate market and sustained upward movement in battery-grade nickel sulfate prices. This dynamic reveals a fundamental shift in NCM cost drivers: pricing is currently dictated almost entirely by the availability and cost of refined nickel and cobalt, not lithium. While LiOH prices are falling, these savings are being more than offset by the increased cost of the other metal inputs. For procurement teams and analysts, this means that accurately forecasting NCM prices now requires a closer watch on the global markets for nickel and cobalt sulfates than on the lithium market itself.

Electrolyte Chain: Stability in Salts, Volatility in Additives

The electrolyte value chain presented a nuanced picture this week, characterized by stability in the high-volume salt component but significant volatility in a low-volume, high-impact additive. The average market price for lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF₆), the primary conductive salt, was unchanged WoW, holding steady at 55,000 RMB · t⁻¹ (USD 7,742 · t⁻¹). Its key precursor, lithium fluoride (LiF), was also largely stable, with forecasts suggesting a “stable-to-soft” outlook.

This stability, however, was punctuated by a sharp upward movement in the price of Fluoroethylene Carbonate (FEC). Prices for this critical additive jumped from 32,000 RMB · t⁻¹ to 34,000 RMB · t⁻¹, a substantial 6.25% increase in a single week. FEC is essential for forming a stable solid-electrolyte interphase (SEI) on silicon-containing anodes, improving cycle life and safety. As its use is non-negotiable in many high-performance cell designs, formulators have little choice but to absorb the price increase. This development underscores a critical point for cost modeling: while LiPF₆ accounts for the largest share of electrolyte salt mass, overall cost and margin risk can be disproportionately driven by specialty additives that, while small in volume, are indispensable for performance.

Further upstream, the cost structure for fluorine-based chemicals appears to be solidifying. The market for Anhydrous Hydrofluoric Acid (AHF), a foundational precursor for both LiF and LiPF₆, was described as “steady-to-firm,” with prices holding in the 10,450–10,600 RMB · t⁻¹ range. This firmness, supported by robust fluorite feedstock costs, combined with stable prices for phosphorus-based intermediates, is creating a hard cost floor for the entire LiPF₆ value chain. This suggests that the period of precipitous price declines for LiPF₆ is likely concluded, with the market now entering a phase of consolidation around this new, lower baseline.

Stats Corner: China’s Material Flows in July – August 2025

The most recent trade data from July – August 2025 provides a clear snapshot of China’s central role in the global battery material supply chain, highlighting its position as a dominant net exporter, particularly for LFP.

• LFP: The export dominance is starkest here. China exported 2,741 tonnes of LFP in July while importing less than one tonne. The United States was the primary destination, receiving 1,380 tonnes, followed by Vietnam with 860 tonnes. This underscores the heavy reliance of Western and Southeast Asian cell manufacturers on Chinese LFP capacity.
• LMO: A similar net export story is evident for lithium manganese oxide, with 298 tonnes exported against just 70 tonnes imported. South Korea was the main recipient of these exports, while Japan was the sole significant source of imports.
• NCM: The NCM trade flow reveals a more sophisticated, multi-tiered strategy. While China was a net exporter by volume (6,369 tonnes exported vs. 5,560 tonnes imported), the value dynamic was inverted. The average price of imported NCM was approximately USD 24,400 · t⁻¹, more than double the average export price of USD 11,800 · t⁻¹. This significant price gap suggests that China is importing high-specification, high-value NCM grades, likely from South Korean partners, for its domestic premium EV market, while exporting more commoditized, lower-cost NCM materials. This challenges a simplistic view of China’s role, showcasing it as both a mass producer and a strategic importer of high-end technology.

Why It Matters: The Delta 3 CoreTec Lens on Operations and Strategy

Translating these market signals into actionable strategy is crucial for maintaining a competitive edge. From a techno-economic and operational perspective, this week’s movements have clear implications for procurement, process control, and quality assurance.

Procurement & TEA Levers

The anode margin squeeze is the most immediate threat. Sourcing teams must recognize that GPC/CPC prices are now the primary variable cost driver. Techno-economic models must be updated to reflect this heightened sensitivity, and procurement strategies should focus on securing longer-term contracts to mitigate spot market volatility. For cathode materials, the widening cost gap between LFP and NCM is a critical strategic lever for product planning. For portfolios heavily weighted towards NCM, the softening LiOH market presents a key opportunity; negotiators should leverage lower hydroxide prices to partially offset the intractable rise in nickel and cobalt precursor costs. In the electrolyte space, procurement and TEA models must evolve beyond tracking only LiPF₆. The sharp rise in FEC demonstrates that a granular approach, with dedicated tracking and forecasting for critical additives, is now essential to manage cost volatility.

Graphitization, Coating, and Throughput

For process engineers in anode manufacturing, the rising cost of GPC and CPC directly inflates the cost of graphitization, one of the most energy-intensive steps in the battery value chain. Mitigating this requires a relentless focus on operational excellence: optimizing furnace loading, minimizing cycle times, and improving energy efficiency (kWh · t⁻¹) are no longer just best practices but are now critical to survival. On the coating lines, the pressure on anode suppliers’ margins is a red flag. It creates an incentive to potentially compromise on quality to save costs. This elevates the importance of robust incoming quality control to ensure that material consistency is maintained, as any deviation can wreak havoc on slurry viscosity, leading to inconsistent electrode coatings, reduced line throughput, and higher scrap rates.

QA/QC and OEE Implications

The “homogenization” of anode materials, coupled with margin pressure, demands heightened vigilance from Quality Assurance/Quality Control (QA/QC) teams. Incoming material inspection—verifying particle size distribution (PSD), tap density, and specific surface area (BET)—must be rigorous to prevent batch-to-batch variability from disrupting stable cell production. Inconsistent anode material is a direct threat to Overall Equipment Effectiveness (OEE), as it can lead to process adjustments, line stoppages, and lower yields. Similarly, as LFP prices fall, QA/QC must ensure that motive-grade material consistently meets its higher capacity and rate capability specifications, preventing any potential substitution with lower-cost, lower-performance energy storage grades.

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This Week’s Moves & Your Levers

• TEA Levers
  • Anode: Your model’s sensitivity to GPC/CPC is now the most critical variable. A 3.5% increase in GPC price can erode margins if not offset by energy efficiency gains in graphitization.
  • Electrolyte: Re-weight your cost model. The impact of a 6.25% FEC price hike on a 2–3% mass formulation can be as significant as a 1% move in LiPF₆.
• QA/QC Watch-Items
  • Anode Incoming: With producer margins squeezed, increase frequency of tap density, particle size distribution (PSD), and specific surface area (BET) checks on all incoming graphite lots.
  • LFP Grade Splits: As LFP prices fall, verify that motive-grade material meets capacity and rate specs, and is not being substituted with lower-performing energy storage grade material.
• Line Throughput & Sourcing
  • Procurement Timing: The cautious downstream buying pattern suggests there is little risk in delaying large-volume purchases. Use the market softness in LFP and LiOH to negotiate favorable terms for Q4 delivery.
  • Pilot vs. Mass Production: The volatility in electrolyte additives (FEC) may impact the performance of next-gen, high-silicon anode cells more than standard graphite cells. Validate any new electrolyte formulations on pilot lines before mass production.

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Headline Price Data (Week Ending Sep 11, 2025)

Limitations & Open Questions

• [Assumption] The provided report focuses on the Chinese domestic market and DDP pricing. While this is a strong proxy for global trends, regional price variations in Europe and North America may exist and often determined by the shipping cost, geopolitical situations and value add.
• “ The report lacks specific pricing for nickel sulfate. While it is noted as rising, the magnitude of the increase is not quantified, which limits the precision of NCM cost modeling.
• “ The specific drivers for the sharp FEC price increase are not detailed as they are unclear at the moment. Understanding if this is due to feedstock shortages, plant maintenance, or demand spikes would inform forecasts on its duration.

Disclaimer

Data derived from BAIINFO Big Data and open source data collected by webcrawlers, proprietary to Delta 3 CoreTech LLC. All prices are converted at USD 1 = CNY 7.1039. This infographic is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or technical advice.