Executive Summary
A week of correction and divergence across the lithium-ion battery (LIB) supply chain. While anode materials and their primary feedstocks held steady, cathode materials saw downward pressure, led by slips in lithium carbonate and hydroxide. The electrolyte chain sent mixed signals, with LiPF₆ continuing its ascent even as its key precursor, lithium fluoride, corrected sharply from last week’s peak.
- Anode Materials: Prices for artificial and natural graphite remained flat week-over-week (WoW) as fierce competition and sufficient capacity offset any cost pressures, keeping prices for mid-end products near the cost line for some producers.
- Anode Feedstocks: Key inputs including GPC, CPC, needle coke, and pitch were largely stable, offering no cost relief but also no new pressure to anode manufacturers grappling with thin margins.
- Cathode Materials: LFP prices edged down on the back of falling lithium carbonate, with dynamical-type LFP dropping to an average of RMB 36,800 ⋅ t⁻¹. NCM prices saw minor corrections, while LCO held stable.
- Lithium & Salts: Both lithium carbonate (LCE) and lithium hydroxide (LiOH) slipped this week. Battery-grade LCE fell to an average of RMB 77,500 ⋅ t⁻¹, while battery-grade LiOH slid to RMB 80,250 ⋅ t⁻¹, easing cost pressure on cathode producers.
- Electrolyte Chain: The market sent conflicting signals. LiPF₆ prices continued to climb, reaching an average of RMB 55,000 ⋅ t⁻¹. However, lithium fluoride (LiF), which drove last week’s surge, corrected downward significantly. Vinylene Carbonate (VC) also saw a price increase.
- Key Intermediates: Anhydrous hydrofluoric acid (AHF) prices climbed, supporting the LiPF₆ cost structure, while phosphorus trichloride (PCl₃) also moved up on its own cost pressures.
What Moved This Week (Aug 28, 2025) & What It Means for Scale-Up
This week’s market movements highlight a complex interplay of cost pass-throughs and demand signals. The stability in the anode complex contrasts sharply with corrections in cathode and lithium pricing. Meanwhile, the electrolyte chain continues to be a focal point of volatility, creating significant uncertainty for techno-economic analysis (TEA) and procurement planning heading into September.
Market Map: WoW Price Direction
The heatmap below provides a high-level summary of WoW price movements across the key segments of the LIB materials value chain. The dominant theme is stability in the anode chain, weakness in cathodes and lithium, and turbulence in the electrolyte and intermediate segments.(Note: All pricing analysis uses a currency conversion of USD 1 = CNY 7.1168 unless otherwise stated).
Anode & Feedstocks
Cathode & Lithium
Electrolyte & Intermediates
Insight: The market shows significant divergence, with anode stability contrasting with cathode weakness and electrolyte volatility.
Anode Materials: Locked in a Stable Stalemate
Domestic anode material prices were unchanged this week. The market remains characterized by fierce competition, sufficient production capacity, and product homogenization, particularly in the mid-to-low-end segments. Downstream inquiries from battery cell makers have become more active, but this has not translated into price support, as buyers leverage the competitive landscape to keep prices down [PDF p.4].
- Artificial Graphite (High-End, >355 mAh ⋅ g⁻¹): RMB 42,000–65,000 ⋅ t⁻¹ (Avg. $7,517 ⋅ t⁻¹) → Steady
- Artificial Graphite (Mid-End, 350-355 mAh ⋅ g⁻¹): RMB 21,000–32,000 ⋅ t⁻¹ (Avg. $3,724 ⋅ t⁻¹) → Steady
- Natural Graphite (High-End, >360 mAh ⋅ g⁻¹): Avg. RMB 50,000 ⋅ t⁻¹ ($7,026 ⋅ t⁻¹) → Steady
For producers, especially in the mid-end segment, prices are reportedly near the cost line, making any further downward movement unsustainable without corresponding decreases in feedstock or energy costs [PDF p.5].
Anode Feedstocks: No Respite from Key Inputs
The primary carbon feedstocks for synthetic graphite anodes—petroleum cokes and pitch—remained stable, mirroring the finished anode product market.
- Green Petroleum Coke (GPC): Low-sulfur GPC prices were stable, with Daqing (1#A) holding at an average of RMB 4,050 ⋅ t⁻¹ ($569 ⋅ t⁻¹) [PDF p.6].
- Calcined Petroleum Coke (CPC): Mid-sulfur CPC transactions were acceptable, with prices holding steady at an average of RMB 2,300 ⋅ t⁻¹ ($323 ⋅ t⁻¹). The outlook suggests a potential for slight price increases on good sales [PDF p.7].
- Needle Coke: Both oil-based and coal-based needle coke markets ran steadily, with demand from anode producers described as being on a need-to basis. Calcined needle coke prices remained in the RMB 7,500–8,300 ⋅ t⁻¹ range ($1,054–1,166 ⋅ t⁻¹) [PDF p.8].
- Coal Tar Pitch: The market is anticipating a slight price drop in fresh orders due to falling feedstock coal tar prices, though a lower utilization rate at distillation plants is tightening supply and providing some support [PDF p.9–10].
This stability means anode producers cannot look to raw material cost reductions to improve margins. The primary lever remains operational efficiency, particularly in the energy-intensive graphitization step.
Insight: Carbon feedstocks and energy-intensive graphitization represent the two largest cost levers for anode producers.
Cathode & Lithium Materials: Prices Correct Downward
In contrast to the anode market, the cathode side saw broad-based price declines, driven primarily by a slip in lithium salt prices.
- LFP: Prices moved downward this week, with the average for dynamical-type LFP falling ~2% to RMB 36,800 ⋅ t⁻¹ ($5,171 ⋅ t⁻¹). This was a direct result of lower LCE costs, though strong demand from the energy storage sector provided a floor to the price drop.
- Lithium Salts: Both key lithium salts corrected.
- Lithium Carbonate (LCE): Battery-grade LCE slid to an average of RMB 77,500 ⋅ t⁻¹ ($10,890 ⋅ t⁻¹) as futures prices moved downward and downstream buyers purchased only for immediate needs.
- Lithium Hydroxide (LiOH): Battery-grade LiOH also slipped, with micro-powder averaging RMB 80,250 ⋅ t⁻¹ ($11,276 ⋅ t⁻¹). Producers are still maintaining firm offers for spot orders due to high spodumene feedstock costs.
- NCM/LCO: NCM prices were largely stable with minor downward corrections on 5-series material. LCO prices stabilized after prior increases, with producers maintaining offers as they await clearer demand signals for September.
The softening of lithium prices provides welcome relief for cathode producers, potentially improving margins if they can hold finished product prices relatively firm against the lower input cost.
Electrolyte Chain: Divergent Signals Create Uncertainty
The electrolyte complex, a source of major volatility last week, sent conflicting signals. LiPF₆ continued to rise, but the LiF precursor that drove its initial surge saw a sharp price correction.
- Lithium Hexafluorophosphate (LiPF₆): The price continued to climb, reaching RMB 55,000 ⋅ t⁻¹ ($7,728 ⋅ t⁻¹). This was supported by a widespread increase in AHF prices and more active inquiries from electrolyte manufacturers.
- Lithium Fluoride (LiF): After “rocketing” last week, battery-grade LiF prices corrected downward by ~6% to RMB 137,500 ⋅ t⁻¹ ($19,320 ⋅ t⁻¹). The drop in LCE feedstock costs provided insufficient support to maintain last week’s peak.
Additives & Solvents: Vinylene Carbonate (VC) prices floated up to an average of RMB 46,500 ⋅ t⁻¹ ($6,534 ⋅ t⁻¹), while other key components like Ethylene Carbonate (EC), FEC, and LiFSI remained stable.
Insight: LiPF₆ continued to rise despite a sharp downward correction in its LiF precursor, indicating other cost factors (like AHF) and demand are now supporting its price.
Intermediates & Global Trade
- Phosphorus & Fluorine: Yellow phosphorus was stable-to-weak. Critically for the electrolyte chain, phosphorus trichloride (PCl₃) prices were raised due to cost pressure [PDF p.22], and anhydrous hydrofluoric acid (AHF) prices climbed up significantly, providing strong cost support for LiPF₆ production independent of LiF’s movement.
Import/Export Data (July 2025): The report reiterates July’s trade data. China’s LFP exports totaled 2,741 tonnes, with the largest shares going to the USA (1,380 tonnes) and Vietnam (860 tonnes). NCM exports (6,369 tonnes) were dominated by South Korea (6,040 tonnes), which was also the primary source of China’s NCM imports (5,244 of 5,560 tonnes). This data underscores established trade relationships, particularly the reliance of South Korean and US battery ecosystems on Chinese material inputs.
Why It Matters: The Delta 3 Core Tec Lens on TEA, QA/QC & Throughput
Translating these weekly movements into actionable decisions is critical for scaling operations.
- Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA): The divergence between LiPF₆ (up) and LiF (down) complicates cost modeling for electrolytes. Teams must update models to reflect the rising influence of AHF and PCl₃ costs rather than assuming a direct LiF pass-through. The slip in LCE and LiOH offers a slight but meaningful tailwind for cathode cost stacks, which should be factored into Q4 budget forecasts. For anodes, with stable material prices, the primary TEA lever remains electricity cost assumptions for graphitization.
- QA/QC & Sourcing: Anode market stability, coupled with reports of producers operating near their cost line, is a signal for QA vigilance. Sourcing teams may find suppliers willing to compete on price, but this could come at the risk of pushing process controls to their limits. Incoming QC on anode powder (e.g., particle size distribution, purity, tap density) is paramount to avoid downstream performance issues in slurry mixing and coating.
- Manufacturability & Throughput: The softening LFP price, driven by lower LCE costs, may accelerate its adoption in segments where cost is the primary driver. For plant operators, this could mean re-evaluating production schedules to favor LFP lines. Any change in cathode powder requires process re-validation. A shift to a new LFP supplier, even with similar specs, could impact slurry viscosity, requiring adjustments to mixing times or coating speeds to maintain target areal loading and avoid costly defects, ultimately affecting overall equipment effectiveness (OEE).
Limitations & Open Questions
- [Data needed] Granular Energy Costs: The report notes the high energy consumption of graphitization but does not provide regional electricity price data. This remains a key variable for accurately modeling anode production costs.
- [Assumption] Qualitative Cost Stacks: The anode cost stack presented is qualitative, based on industry knowledge rather than specific figures in the report. Actual contributions will vary by producer technology and location.
- [Data needed] Producer Operating Rates: While the report mentions production adjustments, specific operating rate percentages for each segment are not provided, making it difficult to precisely quantify supply-side tightness.
Key Price Data Summary
| Segment | Specification | Avg. Price (RMB ⋅ t⁻¹) | Avg. Price (USD ⋅ t⁻¹) | WoW Trend |
| Artificial Anode | High-End (>355 mAh/g) | 53,500 | 7,517 | → |
| LFP | Dynamical-Type | 36,800 | 5,171 | ↓ |
| LCE | Battery-Grade (>99.5%) | 77,500 | 10,890 | ↓ |
| LiOH | BG Micro-Powder | 80,250 | 11,276 | ↓ |
| LiPF₆ | Electrolyte Salt | 55,000 | 7,728 | ↑ |
| LiF | Battery-Grade | 137,500 | 19,320 | ↓ |
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